Warehouse Rebalance 2025 – Cara Conde
Warehouse Real Estate Rebalance 2025: How Indianapolis Investors Are Locking in 7–9% Caps Before the Next Boom
By Cara Conde, CNE, Commercial Syndication Specialist | SVN Northern Commercial | November 29, 2025
Table of Contents
- 1. The National Rebalance – What Every Statistic Actually Means
- 2. Why Indianapolis Is an Outlier (in a Very Good Way)
- 3. Submarket-by-Submarket Breakdown (Public Data Only)
- 4. The New #1 Constraint: Electrical Power Capacity
- 5. Cara Conde’s Publicly Shared 2026 Industrial Strategy
- 6. Risks & Why the Math Still Strongly Favors Buyers
- Deep Dive Podcast – Releasing Dec 5
- YouTube Video Walkthrough + Live Avon Warehouse Tour
- People Also Ask – Fully Answered
- Work With Cara
1. The National Rebalance – What Every Statistic Actually Means
| Metric (Q3 2025) | Number | What It Really Means for Investors |
|---|---|---|
| National vacancy | 11.2% | This is the highest since 2011, but it is simply a return to the long-term healthy average of 7–9%. The 3–4% vacancy we saw in 2021–2023 was unsustainable — like a rubber band stretched too far. It had to snap back. The snap-back creates pricing leverage for buyers right now. |
| New supply (annualized) | 71 million SF | That’s an 85% drop from the 480 million SF delivered at the 2022–2023 peak. Translation: almost no new competition is coming online for the next 18–36 months in most markets. In a normal cycle, 1% lower vacancy triggers 8–12% rent growth the following year. We are setting up for exactly that. |
| National asking rent growth | −4.1% YoY | Rents are not crashing; they are normalizing after the fastest spike in recorded history (+31% YoY in many markets). In strong submarkets (especially Indianapolis), modern space is still achieving positive rent growth because demand never disappeared — only speculative supply did. |
| Under construction | 118 million SF | The lowest pipeline since 2014. Historically, when the construction pipeline falls below 150 million SF, vacancy begins dropping within 12–18 months and rents accelerate. We are already seeing early signs of that inflection. |
2. Why Indianapolis Is an Outlier (in a Very Good Way)
Eli Lilly’s multi-billion-dollar expansion is the largest single pharmaceutical investment in U.S. history. Each direct job at Lilly creates 4–6 indirect logistics and manufacturing jobs. Industry estimates put the ripple-effect space requirement at 15–20 million SF over the next decade — most of which will land within 45 minutes of downtown Indianapolis.
Duke Energy’s $2+ billion grid upgrade program (2025–2028) gives Central Indiana some of the shortest power-delivery timelines in the country. While most U.S. markets face 36–60 month waits for 10+ MW, Hendricks, Boone, and parts of Hamilton counties can deliver in 12–24 months. Power availability is rapidly becoming the single biggest differentiator in site selection.
3. Submarket-by-Submarket Breakdown (Public Data Only)
Northwest Corridor – Whitestown / Lebanon / Boone County
Vacancy ≈ 4.8% (CBRE Q3 2025). Land values have risen from ≈$8/sf in 2021 to $28–$35/sf today because every speculative building delivered since 2023 was 100% pre-leased. This is the tightest large-scale industrial submarket in the entire Midwest right now.
Southwest Corridor – Plainfield / Avon / Hendricks County
Duke Energy’s newest substation can deliver 20+ MW immediately. Modern bulk space is quoting $10.50–$11.50 NNN — rates that rival Chicago and Northern New Jersey, yet with dramatically lower property taxes and no port congestion.
Northeast – Mt Comfort / Greenfield / Hancock County
Still the lowest remaining large-tract land prices inside the metro ($4–$6/sf). Amazon’s 1.2 million SF robotics center (opening Q1 2026) will act as an anchor and pull dozens of supporting 3PL and parcel operations.
4. The New #1 Constraint: Electrical Power Capacity
In 2025 the first question every national tenant asks is “How many megawatts and when can you deliver?” Modern distribution with automation + future EV charging routinely requires 10–30 MW per building. Duke Energy’s publicly available capacity map (November 2025) shows only three Indiana counties can currently deliver 10+ MW in under 24 months. That scarcity is rapidly becoming the new “location, location, location.”
5. Cara Conde’s Publicly Shared 2026 Industrial Strategy
I’ve openly documented the exact system that will drive my $25 million 2026 goal (full breakdown here). The core components:
- Daily assessor-record pull across nine counties
- Apollo.io & PropStream enrichment for owner contact data
- AI-scored motivation modeling
- Automated multi-channel outreach (text → voicemail → email)
- Direct-to-owner off-market acquisition before properties ever hit CoStar or Crexi
6. Risks & Why the Math Still Strongly Favors Buyers
Replacement cost in greater Indianapolis is currently $190–$220 per SF for Class-A bulk product. Publicly listed and recently traded modern buildings are transacting in the $120–$155/sf range — a 30–40% discount to replacement cost. That spread is the single largest margin of safety an investor can have, regardless of short-term tariff or interest-rate noise.
Deep Dive Podcast – Releasing Dec 5
60-minute episode with charts, off-market deal stories, and my 2026 submarket predictions.
🎧 “The Great Warehouse Reset – Indianapolis 2026 Outlook with Cara Conde”
YouTube Video Walkthrough + Live Avon Warehouse Tour
Watch me walk through every chart, map, and deal example from this post — plus a bonus tour of a brand-new 2025-spec warehouse in Avon.
▶️ Watch: Full Blog Breakdown + Brand-New 2025-Spec Warehouse Tour
People Also Ask – Fully Answered
Is industrial real estate still a good investment entering 2026?
In markets with available power, major corporate expansions, and central location — Indianapolis checks every box — it remains one of the strongest asset classes available.
When will warehouse rents start rising again?
History and current pipeline data both point to mid-to-late 2026 as vacancy begins its downward trend and modern, power-ready space leads the next rent-growth cycle.
Ready to Capitalize on the Rebalance?
Message me instantly on Google (fastest response)
Visit caraconde.com • [email protected] • 317-999-9888
Cara Conde
SVN Northern Commercial | Certified Negotiation Expert | Commercial Syndication Specialist
About Cara • SVN Profile • $25M 2026 Strategy
SVN Northern Commercial | Certified Negotiation Expert | Commercial Syndication Specialist
About Cara • SVN Profile • $25M 2026 Strategy
