The Senior Living Revolution Begins: A Call to Action in Indiana
The U.S. senior living market is at a critical crossroads. With a projected need for 35,000–45,000 new units annually to house an aging population, the industry is grappling with a severe supply shortage—only 7,100 units broke ground in 2024, the lowest in over a decade. This gap, coupled with soaring occupancy rates and robust investor interest, signals a golden opportunity for those ready to act. In Indiana, where a growing senior population meets affordable development opportunities, the stage is set for a senior living boom. As the state’s top commercial senior living realtor, I, Cara Conde, am here to guide investors, developers, and operators through this dynamic market, unlocking unparalleled potential in one of America’s most promising real estate sectors.
This blog dives into the senior living landscape, exploring why occupancy is surging, how this asset class is capturing multifamily investors’ attention, and why Indiana is a hidden gem for development. With my expertise and data-driven approach, I’ll show you how to seize this moment and build communities that blend profitability with purpose.
Enjoy This Podcast Deep Dive:
The Senior Living Crisis and Opportunity
America’s population is aging rapidly. Over 10,000 Baby Boomers turn 65 daily, and the 80+ demographic is projected to surge 47% to 20.8 million by 2035. In Indiana, 16.7% of residents—1.1 million Hoosiers—are already 65 or older, with that share expected to hit 20% by 2030, particularly in hubs like Indianapolis and Fort Wayne. This demographic wave is driving unprecedented demand for senior living, from independent living to assisted living and memory care.
Yet supply is failing to keep pace. The industry needs 35,000–45,000 new units annually—250,000 by 2027—to meet demand, but construction has plummeted. In 2024, only 7,100 units broke ground, a 40% drop from 2023 and the lowest since 2009. High interest rates (7–8% for construction loans), labor shortages (30% of contractors report delays), and rising material costs (steel up 15% since 2022) have stalled development. The result? A supply-constrained market where occupancy and rents are soaring, creating a landlord’s market with immense potential for investors and developers, especially in cost-effective states like Indiana.
Occupancy Trends Driving Investor Confidence
Senior living occupancy is on a tear, reaching 86.5% in Q3 2024—up 0.7 points from Q2 and marking 13 consecutive quarters of gains. Nationwide, 611,000 units are occupied, a record high. Independent living leads at 87.6%, while assisted living, at 84.3%, is rebounding faster post-COVID, fueled by rising needs-based demand for dementia care. Top markets like Boston (91.3%) and Tampa (89.2%) set the pace, but Indiana’s Indianapolis metro isn’t far behind, boasting ~88% occupancy in stabilized properties.
Why the surge? Limited new supply is a key driver. Construction starts have fallen 70% from 2019’s peak of 70,000 units to 31,000 in 2024, while annual absorption exceeds 35,000 units. Post-COVID recovery has also boosted demand, with assisted living occupancy jumping 7.3 points in 2023 alone. In Indiana, markets like Fort Wayne, where the 65+ population grew 18% from 2015–2023, are seeing occupancies of 88–90%, yet only 10 new communities have been added, underscoring the supply gap.
Looking ahead, occupancy could hit 90% by late 2025, with rents rising 4–5% annually, particularly in underserved markets like Indiana. For investors, this signals stability and revenue potential, making senior living a “need-driven” asset class that thrives even in economic downturns.
Why Multifamily Investors Are Betting Big on Senior Living
Senior living is capturing the attention of multifamily investors, and for good reason. The asset class blends multifamily’s residential model—apartments, amenities like pools and fitness centers—with hospitality (dining, transportation) and healthcare (nursing, therapy). Active adult (55+) communities, in particular, mirror traditional multifamily, offering scalability and lower regulatory hurdles, making them a natural pivot for multifamily portfolios.
The financials are compelling. Senior living cap rates range from 6.5% to 9.5%, compared to 4.5–5.5% for multifamily—a 190–260 basis point premium. In Indiana, a stabilized assisted living facility might yield an 8% cap rate, while a Class A multifamily property in Indianapolis hovers at 5%. Assisted living averages 7.6%, and memory care, with its specialized demand, reaches 9.5%. With $10 billion in loan maturities looming in 2025, distressed assets offer acquisition opportunities for well-capitalized investors.
Investor sentiment is bullish. A 2024 CBRE survey found 90% of industry leaders plan to increase senior housing exposure in 2025, with 49% targeting core-plus strategies and 34% eyeing opportunistic plays. The sector’s long-term growth is undeniable, with the senior living market projected to reach $158.93 billion by 2030, growing at a 5.86% CAGR. In Indiana, affordable land ($50,000–$100,000 per acre, 50% lower than coastal markets) and regulatory support make it a magnet for multifamily investors. Plus, senior living aligns with ESG goals, offering social impact through quality care and environmental efficiency via sustainable designs.
Indiana’s Senior Living Market: A Hidden Gem
Indiana is poised to lead the senior living boom. With 1.1 million residents 65+ and 20% growth projected by 2030, demand is surging, especially in Indianapolis, Fort Wayne, and Lafayette. Yet the state’s 120 senior living communities—85% occupied in assisted living, 90% in independent living—can’t keep up. The middle market, serving the 41st–80th income percentiles, is particularly underserved, with only 15% of units targeting this 60% of Indiana seniors.
Development in Indiana is cost-effective. Land prices are 20–30% lower than in high-demand states like California or Florida, and tax incentives, such as TIF districts, streamline projects. The state’s Medicaid waiver program supports assisted living affordability, boosting demand. However, challenges like staffing shortages (25% vacancy rates for certified nursing assistants) and rising insurance costs (up 10% in 2024) require strategic partnerships with experienced operators.
Indianapolis and Fort Wayne stand out. Indianapolis’s 88% occupancy reflects strong demand, while Fort Wayne’s 18% senior population growth since 2015 highlights untapped potential. Secondary cities like Evansville and South Bend offer opportunities for middle-market projects, where competition is low and absorption is high.
Cara Conde: Your Trusted Guide in Indiana’s Senior Living Market
As Indiana’s premier commercial senior living realtor, I, Cara Conde, bring unparalleled expertise to this high-opportunity sector. With a track record of closing multimillion-dollar deals and a passion for creating vibrant senior communities, I help investors and developers maximize ROI while addressing Indiana’s urgent need for quality senior housing. My data-driven approach identifies high-demand, low-competition submarkets—think suburban Indianapolis with 20%+ senior population growth or Fort Wayne’s underserved middle market.
I navigate the complexities of senior living with ease, from licensing and zoning to Medicaid compliance, shaving 3–6 months off project timelines. My network of top operators, like Brookdale and Sunrise, and capital partners, including REITs and private equity, ensures seamless transactions. For example, I recently guided a Chicago-based REIT to acquire a distressed Indianapolis assisted living facility at 20% below replacement cost, achieving 90% occupancy within 12 months through strategic repositioning.
As a Hoosier, I’m driven by a mission to build communities where Indiana’s seniors thrive, blending profitability with purpose. Ready to explore Indiana’s senior living opportunities? Contact me at [email protected] or 317-999-9888, or visit www.condeconde.com for a free market analysis.
Emerging Trends Shaping Senior Living in 2025
The senior living sector is evolving rapidly. Adaptive reuse—converting vacant malls or offices into senior living—cuts costs by 20–30% and timelines by 6–12 months, ideal for Indiana’s suburban markets. Modular construction reduces build times by 25% and costs by 15%. Technology, like AI-driven health monitoring and smart-home sensors, enhances resident safety and reduces staff workload by 15%. CRM platforms boost lead conversion by 30%, ensuring high occupancy.
The middle market is a key focus, with only 10% of U.S. units targeting the $2,500–$4,000/month range, despite 60% of Indiana seniors falling in this income bracket. Mixed-use communities, integrating senior living with retail or healthcare, enhance resident engagement and investor appeal. Sustainability, from solar panels to energy-efficient HVAC, attracts institutional capital and lowers operating costs by 10–15%.
Challenges and Solutions for 2025
Staffing remains a hurdle, with 20–30% vacancy rates for caregivers due to low wages ($15–$18/hour) and burnout. Rising costs—insurance up 12%, food up 8%—squeeze margins, while affordability challenges 50% of Indiana seniors reliant on Social Security. Solutions include AI scheduling, telehealth, and public-private partnerships leveraging Indiana’s Medicaid waivers. Centralized procurement and energy retrofits can cut costs by 5–10%. My role? Connecting clients with operators who implement these strategies, ensuring project success.
Conclusion
The senior living sector is a rare opportunity: record-high occupancy (86.5%, trending toward 90%), a critical supply shortage (250,000 units needed by 2027), and cap rates of 6.5–9.5% make it a magnet for multifamily investors. Indiana, with its growing senior population, affordable land, and untapped middle market, is a prime destination. As your trusted partner, I, Cara Conde, offer the expertise, data, and connections to capitalize on this boom.
Don’t miss out. Partner with me to build thriving senior communities in Indiana. Schedule a consultation at www.condeconde.com or call 317-999-9888. Together, we’ll create spaces where Hoosier seniors live with dignity, connection, and joy—a legacy that’s both profitable and purposeful.
