U.S. Home Prices Just Went Negative – Here’s Why Indianapolis Buyers Are Smiling in 2026
By Cara Conde
Top 1% Indianapolis Realtor® | SVN Northern Commercial | Oxford University | Luxury & Commercial Specialist
Why 2026 is Indianapolis homebuyers’ once-in-a-cycle “sweet spot”
National prices are declining for the first time since 2023, yet Indy’s median price is still up 4.1%, bidding wars are disappearing, and lower rates are about to hand buyers an extra ~$35,000 in purchasing power.
Source: Case-Shiller, F.C. Tucker/MIBOR, Federal Reserve • Cara Conde, SVN Northern Commercial • December 2025
Table of Contents
- Introduction – National Decline, Indianapolis Opportunity
- 1. What the National Home Price Dip Really Means
- 2. Why Indianapolis Is Defying the National Trend
- 3. The Fed’s Rate Cut Unlocks 2026
- 4. Actionable Strategies for Buyers & Sellers
- 5. Top Neighborhoods for 2026 Appreciation
- 6. Video Walk-Through + Deep-Dive Podcast
- 7. People Also Ask – 2026 Indianapolis FAQ
- Contact Cara Conde Today
For the first time in over two years, U.S. home prices have officially turned negative.
CNBC reported December 11, 2025: national home prices fell year-over-year for the first time since 2023, with a 1.4% drop in the last three months alone. Austin (−10%), Denver (−5%), and Phoenix are leading the correction.
Meanwhile, Indianapolis is writing a completely different — and much happier — story.
As a top 1% Realtor with SVN Northern Commercial, I’m combining fresh national data with hyper-local Indianapolis insights to show you why the Fed’s December 2025 rate cut just created the best buying window we’ve seen since early 2022.
→ My full rate-cut deep dive: The Fed’s 0.25% Rate Cut Just Unlocked the 2026 Indianapolis Housing Market
1. What the National Home Price Dip Really Means
National prices down ~0.7% YoY (Case-Shiller Oct 2025)
- Inventory up 13% nationally but still 28% below pre-pandemic levels
- Sales suppressed by the “rate-lock” effect
This is an affordability slowdown, not a crash. Midwest markets — especially Indianapolis — continue to outperform.
This is a widespread affordability slowdown — not a crash — with dramatic regional differences.
Source: Case-Shiller, CNBC, Redfin • December 2025
2. Why Indianapolis Continues to Defy the National Trend
Latest December 2025 data (F.C. Tucker & MIBOR):
- Median sale price: $320,000 (+4.1% YoY)
- Months of inventory: 3.8 → balanced market
- Move-in-ready homes in top suburbs still selling in under 14 days
November 2025 pending sales = highest November since 2021
Indianapolis Is Defying the National Trend with Consistent Growth
While the rest of the country cools, Indy maintains strong appreciation, balanced inventory, record November activity, and lightning-fast sales in desirable areas.
Source: F.C. Tucker & MIBOR – December 2025 Data • Cara Conde, SVN Northern Commercial
3. The Fed’s December Rate Cut Changes Everything for 2026
Real numbers for Indianapolis buyers:
- $350,000 loan today (~6.75%) → $2,270/mo
- Same loan at projected ~6.10% (March 2026) → $2,100/mo
- Monthly savings $170 → Extra purchasing power ~$35,000
Consensus forecast: another 0.50–0.75% in cuts → 30-year rates in the high-5% range by summer 2026.
The Fed’s December 2025 Rate Cut Just Unlocked the 2026 Buying Window
The first 0.25% cut is in the books — and economists now forecast an additional 0.50–0.75% in cuts through 2026, driving 30-year rates into the high-5% range by summer 2026.
Source: Federal Reserve, Fannie Mae, Mortgage Bankers Association, Goldman Sachs • Cara Conde, SVN Northern Commercial • December 2025
A single 0.65% rate drop = ~$35,000 instant increase in purchasing power
That’s the difference between a starter home and your forever home — or between renting and owning in Carmel, Zionsville, or Geist.
Calculations based on 30-year fixed, 20% down, current rates vs. projected March 2026 • Cara Conde, SVN Northern Commercial • December 2025
4. Actionable Strategies from Cara Conde, SVN Northern Commercial
Buyers: Get pre-approved now, explore 2-1 buydowns, target 21+ day listings, use my exclusive off-market pipeline (38 off-market closings in 2025).
Sellers: Price aggressively for Jan–Feb closing, professional staging + cinematic drone tours = my listings average 11 days on market.
Cara Conde • Top 1% Realtor® • SVN Northern Commercial • December 2025
5. Top Indianapolis Neighborhoods Poised for 2026 Appreciation
- Carmel & Westfield – Top schools + new construction
- Geist Reservoir & Oaklandon – Waterfront luxury 15–20% below national averages
- Zionsville – Brick estates & village charm
- Whitestown / Lebanon – LEAP District = 15,000+ new jobs
- Bates-Hendricks, Fountain Square, Fall Creek Place – Urban revitalization premium
These five Indianapolis-area pockets are projected to lead appreciation in 2026
— and many of the best opportunities are still off-market or coming-soon.
2026 Indianapolis Hotspot Forecast • Cara Conde, Top 1% Realtor® • SVN Northern Commercial • December 2025
6. Watch the Full Video Walk-Through + Listen to the Deep-Dive Podcast
6-Minute YouTube Market Update (December 2025)
13-Minute Podcast Deep Dive
7. People Also Ask – Your 2026 Indianapolis Questions Answered
Will home prices drop in Indianapolis in 2026?
Highly unlikely without a recession. Expect 2–4% appreciation (top suburbs 5–7%).
Should I buy now or wait until 2026?
Buy in Q1 2026 — best rates + lowest competition.
Is Indianapolis still a seller’s market?
No — now balanced and trending buyer-friendly.
Are there still bidding wars?
Only on exceptional homes. Over-asking sales fell from 48% (2024) to ~22% (2025).
Will mortgage rates go lower in 2026?
Yes — high-5% rates expected by summer.
This Is Your Indianapolis Window — Let’s Seize It Together
Lower rates + balanced inventory + continued migration = the best buying conditions in four years.
📞 (317) 999-9888
✉️ [email protected]
It’s 20+ years of proven results, Oxford-honed analytics, and relentless negotiation mastery — all working for you.
Cara Conde • SVN Northern Commercial • Top 1% Indianapolis Realtor® • December 2025
To your next chapter in Indianapolis,
Cara Conde
SVN Northern Commercial | Top 1% Indianapolis Realtor®
